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2016 Senate · FL

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2016-10-22 (17 days before the election) · 1,251 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 45%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.31% · Republican 51.98%

R+7.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 45 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.315 − 51.981 = -7.666
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-7.666) = 3.666
  4. Absolute miss = |3.666| = 3.666

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47465, race ID 93 (538 database).