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2016 President · FL

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2016-10-22 (17 days before the election) · 1,251 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 45%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.82% · Republican 49.02%

R+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 45 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.823 − 49.022 = -1.199
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (-1.199) = 4.199
  4. Absolute miss = |4.199| = 4.199

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47465, race ID 611 (538 database).