2016 Senate · FL
The Tyson Group · fieldwork ended 2016-10-19 (20 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 38% · Republican 43%
R+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 44.31% · Republican 51.98%
R+7.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 38 − 43 = -5.00
- Actual margin = 44.315 − 51.981 = -7.666
- Signed miss = -5.00 − (-7.666) = 2.666
- Absolute miss = |2.666| = 2.666
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47462, race ID 93 (538 database).