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2016 President · national

GQR · fieldwork ended 2016-10-23 (16 days before the election) · 900 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 38%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.00% · Republican 45.81%

D+2.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 38 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.997 − 45.815 = 2.182
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (2.182) = 9.819
  4. Absolute miss = |9.819| = 9.819

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47355, race ID 94 (538 database).