2016 Senate · SD
Remington Research Group · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 1,115 respondents · IVR/Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 36% · Republican 57%
R+21.0
The certified result
Democrat 28.17% · Republican 71.83%
R+43.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 36 − 57 = -21.00
- Actual margin = 28.172 − 71.828 = -43.656
- Signed miss = -21.00 − (-43.656) = 22.656
- Absolute miss = |22.656| = 22.656
The poll overstated the Democrat by 22.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47346, race ID 79 (538 database).