2016 President · SD
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2016-10-19 (20 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 37% · Republican 44%
R+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 31.74% · Republican 61.53%
R+29.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 37 − 44 = -7.00
- Actual margin = 31.737 − 61.531 = -29.794
- Signed miss = -7.00 − (-29.794) = 22.793
- Absolute miss = |22.793| = 22.793
The poll overstated the Democrat by 22.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47343, race ID 643 (538 database).