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2016 President · ID

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2016-10-22 (17 days before the election) · 1,023 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 23.3% · Republican 52.3%

R+29.0

The certified result

Democrat 27.49% · Republican 59.26%

R+31.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 23.3 − 52.3 = -29.00
  2. Actual margin = 27.492 − 59.261 = -31.769
  3. Signed miss = -29.00 − (-31.769) = 2.769
  4. Absolute miss = |2.769| = 2.769

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47339, race ID 615 (538 database).