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2016 President · NV

Remington Research Group · fieldwork ended 2016-10-21 (18 days before the election) · 1,332 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 47%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.92% · Republican 45.50%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 47 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.918 − 45.501 = 2.417
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (2.417) = -5.417
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.417| = 5.417

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47337, race ID 635 (538 database).