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2016 President · NC

Remington Research Group · fieldwork ended 2016-10-21 (18 days before the election) · 1,764 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 47%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.17% · Republican 49.83%

R+3.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 47 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.173 − 49.828 = -3.655
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-3.655) = 0.655
  4. Absolute miss = |0.655| = 0.655

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47333, race ID 629 (538 database).