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2016 Senate · NH

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-19 (20 days before the election) · 772 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 48%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.98% · Republican 47.84%

D+0.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 48 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.981 − 47.844 = 0.137
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (0.137) = -4.138
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.138| = 4.138

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47326, race ID 85 (538 database).