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2016 President · NH

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-19 (20 days before the election) · 772 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 38%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.83% · Republican 46.46%

D+0.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 38 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.826 − 46.459 = 0.367
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (0.367) = 4.632
  4. Absolute miss = |4.632| = 4.632

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47326, race ID 632 (538 database).