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2016 House · NH-1

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-19 (20 days before the election) · 380 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 37%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.29% · Republican 42.95%

D+1.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 37 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.286 − 42.946 = 1.340
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (1.340) = 2.660
  4. Absolute miss = |2.660| = 2.660

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47326, race ID 6011 (538 database).