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2016 President · WA

Elway Research · fieldwork ended 2016-10-21 (18 days before the election) · 502 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 31%

D+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.54% · Republican 36.83%

D+15.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 31 = 17.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.539 − 36.833 = 15.706
  3. Signed miss = 17.00 − (15.706) = 1.294
  4. Absolute miss = |1.294| = 1.294

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47316, race ID 649 (538 database).