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2016 Governor · WA

Elway Research · fieldwork ended 2016-10-21 (18 days before the election) · 502 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 39%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.39% · Republican 45.61%

D+8.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 39 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.390 − 45.610 = 8.780
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (8.780) = 3.221
  4. Absolute miss = |3.221| = 3.221

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47316, race ID 58 (538 database).