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2016 Senate · NC

Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2016-10-22 (17 days before the election) · 402 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 49%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.37% · Republican 51.06%

R+5.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 49 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.366 − 51.062 = -5.696
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-5.696) = -0.304
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.304| = 0.304

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47254, race ID 62 (538 database).