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2016 Senate · OH

Suffolk University · fieldwork ended 2016-10-18 (21 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 30.8% · Republican 45.8%

R+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 37.16% · Republican 58.03%

R+20.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 30.8 − 45.8 = -15.00
  2. Actual margin = 37.158 − 58.029 = -20.871
  3. Signed miss = -15.00 − (-20.871) = 5.871
  4. Absolute miss = |5.871| = 5.871

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47094, race ID 67 (538 database).