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2016 President · UT

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2016-10-18 (21 days before the election) · 700 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 24.4% · Republican 27%

R+2.6

The certified result

Democrat 27.46% · Republican 45.54%

R+18.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 24.4 − 27 = -2.60
  2. Actual margin = 27.460 − 45.538 = -18.078
  3. Signed miss = -2.60 − (-18.078) = 15.478
  4. Absolute miss = |15.478| = 15.478

The poll overstated the Democrat by 15.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47082, race ID 646 (538 database).