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2016 Senate · MO

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2016-10-18 (21 days before the election) · 600 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44.4% · Republican 44%

D+0.4

The certified result

Democrat 46.39% · Republican 49.18%

R+2.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.4 − 44 = 0.40
  2. Actual margin = 46.392 − 49.184 = -2.792
  3. Signed miss = 0.40 − (-2.792) = 3.192
  4. Absolute miss = |3.192| = 3.192

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47081, race ID 70 (538 database).