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2016 Senate · NH

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2016-10-18 (21 days before the election) · 900 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44.9% · Republican 45%

R+0.1

The certified result

Democrat 47.98% · Republican 47.84%

D+0.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.9 − 45 = -0.10
  2. Actual margin = 47.981 − 47.844 = 0.137
  3. Signed miss = -0.10 − (0.137) = -0.238
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.238| = 0.238

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47079, race ID 85 (538 database).