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2016 President · NH

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2016-10-18 (21 days before the election) · 900 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 36%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.83% · Republican 46.46%

D+0.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 36 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.826 − 46.459 = 0.367
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (0.367) = 7.632
  4. Absolute miss = |7.632| = 7.632

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47079, race ID 632 (538 database).