Skip to content

2004 Senate · GA

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-14 (19 days before the election) · 501 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 35% · Republican 53%

R+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.98% · Republican 57.88%

R+17.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35 − 53 = -18.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.978 − 57.877 = -17.899
  3. Signed miss = -18.00 − (-17.899) = -0.101
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.101| = 0.101

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4699, race ID 1622 (538 database).