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2004 President · CO

Gallup · fieldwork ended 2004-10-16 (17 days before the election) · 666 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 51%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.04% · Republican 51.71%

R+4.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 51 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.038 − 51.711 = -4.673
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-4.673) = -1.327
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.327| = 1.327

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4691, race ID 760 (538 database).