2004 President · CA
Los Angeles Times · fieldwork ended 2004-10-16 (17 days before the election) · 925 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 56% · Republican 39%
D+17.0
The certified result
Democrat 54.30% · Republican 44.36%
D+9.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 56 − 39 = 17.00
- Actual margin = 54.303 − 44.356 = 9.947
- Signed miss = 17.00 − (9.947) = 7.053
- Absolute miss = |7.053| = 7.053
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4689, race ID 759 (538 database).