2004 Senate · OH
ABC News/The Washington Post · fieldwork ended 2004-10-16 (17 days before the election) · 789 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 35% · Republican 60%
R+25.0
The certified result
Democrat 36.15% · Republican 63.85%
R+27.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 35 − 60 = -25.00
- Actual margin = 36.145 − 63.849 = -27.704
- Signed miss = -25.00 − (-27.704) = 2.704
- Absolute miss = |2.704| = 2.704
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4688, race ID 1638 (538 database).