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2004 House · NV-3

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2004-10-17 (16 days before the election) · 307 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 35% · Republican 50%

R+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.40% · Republican 54.46%

R+14.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35 − 50 = -15.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.402 − 54.458 = -14.056
  3. Signed miss = -15.00 − (-14.056) = -0.944
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.944| = 0.944

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4686, race ID 3395 (538 database).