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2004 Senate · FL

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-16 (17 days before the election) · 596 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 49%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.32% · Republican 49.43%

R+1.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 49 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.321 − 49.434 = -1.113
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-1.113) = -0.887
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.887| = 0.887

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4672, race ID 1621 (538 database).