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2004 Governor · WA

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-16 (17 days before the election) · 634 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 44%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.87% · Republican 48.87%

even

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 44 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.873 − 48.868 = 0.005
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (0.005) = 5.995
  4. Absolute miss = |5.995| = 5.995

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4669, race ID 1373 (538 database).