2004 Senate · IL
Richard Day Research · fieldwork ended 2004-10-17 (16 days before the election) · 828 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 70% · Republican 20%
D+50.0
The certified result
Democrat 69.97% · Republican 27.05%
D+42.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 70 − 20 = 50.00
- Actual margin = 69.969 − 27.048 = 42.921
- Signed miss = 50.00 − (42.921) = 7.080
- Absolute miss = |7.080| = 7.080
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4663, race ID 1625 (538 database).