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2004 President · NM

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2004-10-17 (16 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 49%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.05% · Republican 49.84%

R+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 49 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.047 − 49.838 = -0.791
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-0.791) = -4.208
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.208| = 4.208

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4662, race ID 787 (538 database).