2004 Senate · IL
Market Shares Corp. · fieldwork ended 2004-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 700 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 66% · Republican 19%
D+47.0
The certified result
Democrat 69.97% · Republican 27.05%
D+42.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 66 − 19 = 47.00
- Actual margin = 69.969 − 27.048 = 42.921
- Signed miss = 47.00 − (42.921) = 4.080
- Absolute miss = |4.080| = 4.080
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4638, race ID 1625 (538 database).