2004 Senate · PA
Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2004-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 841 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 36% · Republican 51%
R+15.0
The certified result
Democrat 41.99% · Republican 52.62%
R+10.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 36 − 51 = -15.00
- Actual margin = 41.987 − 52.618 = -10.631
- Signed miss = -15.00 − (-10.631) = -4.370
- Absolute miss = |-4.370| = 4.370
The poll overstated the Republican by 4.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4634, race ID 1641 (538 database).