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2004 President · TN

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 615 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 60%

R+22.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.52% · Republican 56.80%

R+14.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 60 = -22.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.525 − 56.799 = -14.274
  3. Signed miss = -22.00 − (-14.274) = -7.726
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.726| = 7.726

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4633, race ID 797 (538 database).