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2004 President · IN

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 602 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 59%

R+22.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.26% · Republican 59.95%

R+20.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 59 = -22.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.263 − 59.945 = -20.682
  3. Signed miss = -22.00 − (-20.682) = -1.318
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.318| = 1.318

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4628, race ID 770 (538 database).