2004 Senate · IN
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 597 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 63% · Republican 31%
D+32.0
The certified result
Democrat 61.65% · Republican 37.23%
D+24.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 63 − 31 = 32.00
- Actual margin = 61.649 − 37.225 = 24.424
- Signed miss = 32.00 − (24.424) = 7.576
- Absolute miss = |7.576| = 7.576
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4628, race ID 1626 (538 database).