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2004 President · OH

Gallup · fieldwork ended 2004-10-19 (14 days before the election) · 706 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 47%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.71% · Republican 50.81%

R+2.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 47 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.707 − 50.814 = -2.107
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (-2.107) = 3.107
  4. Absolute miss = |3.107| = 3.107

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4623, race ID 790 (538 database).