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2004 Senate · PA

Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion · fieldwork ended 2004-10-19 (14 days before the election) · 787 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 31% · Republican 53%

R+22.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.99% · Republican 52.62%

R+10.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 31 − 53 = -22.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.987 − 52.618 = -10.631
  3. Signed miss = -22.00 − (-10.631) = -11.370
  4. Absolute miss = |-11.370| = 11.370

The poll overstated the Republican by 11.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4621, race ID 1641 (538 database).