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2004 Senate · OH

Opinion Dynamics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-17 (16 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 28% · Republican 58%

R+30.0

The certified result

Democrat 36.15% · Republican 63.85%

R+27.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 28 − 58 = -30.00
  2. Actual margin = 36.145 − 63.849 = -27.704
  3. Signed miss = -30.00 − (-27.704) = -2.296
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.296| = 2.296

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4617, race ID 1638 (538 database).