2004 President · LA
Market Research Insight · fieldwork ended 2004-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 37% · Republican 52%
R+15.0
The certified result
Democrat 42.22% · Republican 56.72%
R+14.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 37 − 52 = -15.00
- Actual margin = 42.216 − 56.722 = -14.506
- Signed miss = -15.00 − (-14.506) = -0.494
- Absolute miss = |-0.494| = 0.494
The poll overstated the Republican by 0.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4614, race ID 773 (538 database).