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2004 Senate · OK

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-19 (14 days before the election) · 625 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 47%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.24% · Republican 52.77%

R+11.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 47 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.245 − 52.765 = -11.520
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-11.520) = 5.520
  4. Absolute miss = |5.520| = 5.520

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4613, race ID 1639 (538 database).