Skip to content

2004 President · NH

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2004-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 47%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.24% · Republican 48.87%

D+1.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 47 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.242 − 48.874 = 1.368
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (1.368) = 0.632
  4. Absolute miss = |0.632| = 0.632

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4605, race ID 785 (538 database).