2004 President · MI
EPIC-MRA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 610 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 43%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.23% · Republican 47.81%
D+3.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 43 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 51.231 − 47.812 = 3.419
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (3.419) = 2.581
- Absolute miss = |2.581| = 2.581
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4595, race ID 777 (538 database).