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2004 Senate · NH

Franklin Pierce University Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication · fieldwork ended 2004-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 617 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 27% · Republican 60%

R+33.0

The certified result

Democrat 33.72% · Republican 66.18%

R+32.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 27 − 60 = -33.00
  2. Actual margin = 33.717 − 66.178 = -32.461
  3. Signed miss = -33.00 − (-32.461) = -0.539
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.539| = 0.539

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4593, race ID 1634 (538 database).