2004 Senate · NC
The Tyson Group · fieldwork ended 2004-10-19 (14 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 43%
R+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.02% · Republican 51.60%
R+4.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 43 = -1.00
- Actual margin = 47.019 − 51.596 = -4.577
- Signed miss = -1.00 − (-4.577) = 3.577
- Absolute miss = |3.577| = 3.577
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4590, race ID 1636 (538 database).