2004 Governor · NC
The Tyson Group · fieldwork ended 2004-10-19 (14 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 34%
D+15.0
The certified result
Democrat 55.62% · Republican 42.88%
D+12.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 34 = 15.00
- Actual margin = 55.616 − 42.878 = 12.738
- Signed miss = 15.00 − (12.738) = 2.262
- Absolute miss = |2.262| = 2.262
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4590, race ID 1369 (538 database).