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2004 President · TN

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2004-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 53%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.52% · Republican 56.80%

R+14.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 53 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.525 − 56.799 = -14.274
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-14.274) = 2.274
  4. Absolute miss = |2.274| = 2.274

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4585, race ID 797 (538 database).