2004 President · FL
SEA Polling & Strategic Design · fieldwork ended 2004-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 46%
even
The certified result
Democrat 47.09% · Republican 52.10%
R+5.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 46 = 0.00
- Actual margin = 47.091 − 52.098 = -5.007
- Signed miss = 0.00 − (-5.007) = 5.006
- Absolute miss = |5.006| = 5.006
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.0 points and showed a tie.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4584, race ID 764 (538 database).