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2004 President · FL

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2004-10-23 (10 days before the election) · 567 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 48%

even

The certified result

Democrat 47.09% · Republican 52.10%

R+5.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 48 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.091 − 52.098 = -5.007
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-5.007) = 5.006
  4. Absolute miss = |5.006| = 5.006

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.0 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4575, race ID 764 (538 database).