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2004 President · CO

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-23 (10 days before the election) · 602 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 45%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.04% · Republican 51.71%

R+4.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 45 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.038 − 51.711 = -4.673
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (-4.673) = 8.673
  4. Absolute miss = |8.673| = 8.673

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4568, race ID 760 (538 database).