2004 President · FL
Los Angeles Times · fieldwork ended 2004-10-24 (9 days before the election) · 510 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 43% · Republican 51%
R+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.09% · Republican 52.10%
R+5.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 43 − 51 = -8.00
- Actual margin = 47.091 − 52.098 = -5.007
- Signed miss = -8.00 − (-5.007) = -2.994
- Absolute miss = |-2.994| = 2.994
The poll overstated the Republican by 3.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4544, race ID 764 (538 database).