2004 President · OH
Los Angeles Times · fieldwork ended 2004-10-24 (9 days before the election) · 585 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 44%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.71% · Republican 50.81%
R+2.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 44 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 48.707 − 50.814 = -2.107
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (-2.107) = 8.107
- Absolute miss = |8.107| = 8.107
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.1 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4534, race ID 790 (538 database).